My Items

Geopolitical Tensions Drive Chinese and Middle Eastern Investors to Increase Investments in Brazil

As private equity funds pull back, strategic investors from China and the Middle East are seeking opportunities in Brazil, attracted by the country’s growth potential and economic stability. Market volatility stemming from the war in the Middle East and trade restrictions imposed by the U.S. government on China are affecting mergers and acquisitions activity in Brazil, increasing the number of strategic investors from China and the Middle East seeking companies in the country and across Latin America. “We are seeing private equity funds being replaced by strategic investors, as well as growing interest from Chinese investors due to geopolitical considerations and the size of the Brazilian market, while Japan and the Middle East have also regained significant interest,” said Daniel Wainstein, co-CEO of Seneca Group. Private equity funds have been losing ground in M&A transactions, pressured by high interest rates and the lack of IPOs, which makes it more difficult to exit investments. According to Wainstein, the pullback by private equity funds is helping create a favorable environment for strategic investors, which take a broader view of Brazil’s overall potential and tend to have a longer-term investment horizon. “Chinese investors have been preparing for quite some time to take advantage of this window of opportunity, with less competition from funds on one side and companies in need of capital on the other,” he added. Wainstein, who recently hosted a delegation of Chinese entrepreneurs, also noted that the profile of Chinese investors has changed as their focus has diversified beyond sectors traditionally linked to national strategic interests, such as infrastructure. Experts interviewed by Estadão/Broadcast said that major Chinese investments remain concentrated in power, agribusiness and logistics infrastructure, but attention has increasingly shifted toward mining, rare earths and solar energy. The latter sectors, together with the automotive industry, have been among those facing restrictions from the United States. “Tensions between China and the United States are reducing their access to certain markets, and Brazil has become a very attractive alternative in the automotive sector,” said Alexandre Pierantoni, Head of Latin America and Brazil Corporate Finance at Kroll Corporate Finance. Brazil, meanwhile, introduced incentives for imports of electrified vehicles, which expire at the end of this year, providing an additional catalyst for local production. Chinese automakers BYD and GWM have already invested billions in manufacturing facilities to produce vehicles in the country. According to Pierantoni, this movement is expanding, with Chinese investors increasingly targeting the auto parts supply chain, where demand has been “extremely strong.” “Deals have not yet been completed, but there is a significant amount of prospecting by Chinese investors,” he added. Pierantoni noted that Chinese diversification in M&A extends beyond these areas. Investors are also looking at companies serving the mining industry, including yellow-line equipment manufacturers, such as heavy machinery, and explosives producers. They have also been making smaller-than-usual investments in companies with technology and artificial intelligence capabilities in sectors where they already have a presence, such as agribusiness and mining. According to Guilherme Bueno Malouf, Head of M&A at law firm Machado Meyer, the strong relationship between Brazil and China is also contributing to the increase in Chinese transactions. “Geopolitical considerations are relevant. They are not explicitly stated in transactions, but we know that greater ideological alignment tends to drive stronger demand,” he said. Malouf also noted that Brazil is a strategic market and believes that part of the U.S. tariff war is a response to China’s growing presence in Latin America, particularly in Brazil. “China is moving full steam ahead,” said Martha Leonardis, founder and CEO of international business consultancy NewCo. According to her, Chinese investment increased by US$2 billion last year compared with 2024, exceeding US$6 billion across 52 projects. Leonardis noted that China is more mature than the Middle East in terms of investment activity in Brazil and that Middle Eastern investors tend to look at the broader region rather than Brazil specifically, typically with an expansion-oriented approach. Another difference is that, unlike Chinese investors, which tend to prefer controlling stakes, Middle Eastern investors generally seek minority stakes with board representation. “They do not have the human capital to take control of a company,” she said. Despite being part of the same region, Middle Eastern countries have different investment approaches, reflecting the specific circumstances each country is facing, Leonardis said. The regional conflict, for example, has led some countries to pull back and focus on domestic challenges, including Qatar and Bahrain, which had previously been opening up to overseas investments. Likewise, hospitality and real estate, previously among the sectors most actively targeted by certain Middle Eastern countries, have fallen off the investment agenda in the current environment. Conversely, Oman, which has a sovereign wealth fund of approximately US$50 billion, and Saudi Arabia are highly active in seeking opportunities, although their focus is generally on companies that are also interested in investing in their respective countries. “They provide subsidies and incentives for these investments locally, in partnership with sovereign wealth funds, which is attractive to Brazilian companies seeking to expand internationally,” she said. According to Leonardis, one-third of the acquisition value must be directed toward business activities in the investor’s home country. According to her, investors from Oman and Saudi Arabia have been exploring opportunities in infrastructure, mining, food, rare earths and data centers, with the latter two themes having entered their investment agendas only in recent years. “We are hosting a delegation from Oman in November, which was also here in July,” she said. Leonardis said Abu Dhabi has significant investment potential, given that its sovereign wealth fund holds US$1.7 trillion in assets, although the number of completed transactions remains far below the volume of opportunities it evaluates. Mining and infrastructure are the main sectors of interest, again with an emphasis on local investment commitments. “It is a greenfield region where virtually everything represents an opportunity, and, if they could, they would rather bring in intellectual and technological capabilities than invest directly in the company,” she said. In June of this year, Abu Dhabi Ports Group, which operates major maritime and logistics infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, acquired Corredor Logística de Infraestrutura (CLI), located at the Port of Itaqui in São Luís, Maranhão, for US$835 million, approximately R$4 billion, marking its entry into Brazil’s port sector as part of a broader food security strategy. By early 2025, sovereign wealth funds from Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Oman, had accumulated more than US$14 billion in investments in Brazil, according to a survey conducted by the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute (SWFI) at the request of Estadão/Broadcast. Leonardis noted that the figure demonstrates that Gulf capital already has a meaningful presence in Brazil, as the accumulated investment alone was equivalent to at least 1.2% of the country’s total stock of foreign direct investment. At the same time, she added that the estimate is conservative, as it primarily covers sovereign wealth funds and does not fully capture strategic companies, family offices, private capital or transactions for which values have not been publicly disclosed. Published on 09/18/2026 and available at: https://www.estadao.com.br/economia/tensao-geopolitica-leva-chineses-e-investidores-do-oriente-medio-a-ampliar-apostas-no-brasil/

Brazil’s Depressed Valuations Drive Wave of Stock Delistings

Depressed valuations and stagnant trading volumes are pushing a growing number of companies to go private in Brazil, further eroding the country’s weight in global equity portfolios. Stock exchange B3 SA has seen 33 companies delist since 2024, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. At least six new tender offers have already been announced, including for Banco Santander Brasil SA, Companhia Brasileira de Aluminio SA and Helbor Empreendimentos SA. Investment bankers, investors and B3’s executives blame several factors for the exodus. Chief among them are Brazil’s stubbornly high interest rates — with the Selic above 10% since 2022, there’s little to put up with volatile equities. Instability from the war in the Middle East, the AI boom in the US and Asia are also seen as drawing money away from the country. “The Brazilian stock market has been going through a particularly challenging period,” André Milanez, B3’s chief financial officer, said in an interview. Next month’s presidential elections present a further complication, he added. “Naturally, market participants prefer to wait before making moves.” Adding to the woes is that the pipeline for Brazilian initial public offerings has been bare for years. In May, Compass SA became the first to do so since 2021, and bankers say there are no companies expected to debut this year. Acquisitions also explain part of the trend, said Fabio Nazari, head of equity capital markets for Banco BTG Pactual SA. According to Brazilian law, when a new shareholder takes control of a company, it must do a tender offer to buy out all minority shareholders at the same conditions. That’s the case of Companhia Brasileira de Aluminio, which is being acquired by China’s Chinalco and Rio Tinto. Santander Brasil, whose valuations are at record lows compared to the parent company in Spain, will be part of a tender offer through a share exchange expected for the first half of 2027. BTG did a buyout of subsidiary Banco Pan in January. Grupo Indiana is incorporating unit Neogrid, a tech and software company, while real estate firm HBR Realty Empreendimentos Imobiliários SA is taking up Helbor Empreendimentos SA as subsidiary and delisting it. “If a stock is trading below book value, the best use of the controlling shareholder’s money is to buy the stake held by the market, which has ceased to be a good partner,” said Daniel Wainstein, founding partner at investment banking boutique Seneca Evercore. “A low share price prevents the company from raising further equity capital, and yet remaining a publicly traded company entails a huge amount of work.” Claudia Mesquita, head of Brazil Equity capital markets at UBS BB Investment Banking, sees the delistings as “a natural consequence” of the boom of 2020 and 2021, which brought in IPOs from “issuers at various stages of maturity.” Trading in Brazilian equities has dwindled since its 2021 peak, with average daily turnover falling nearly 32% to 20.7 billion reais ($4 billion) in 2025, according to B3 data. Volumes rebounded this year ahead of the election and as foreigners diversified away from the US, averaging 26.8 billion reais through July, but remain below levels seen around the boom. The reduced amount of companies keeps traders confined to a small number of liquid shares that tends to yield only average returns, said Christian Keleti, Alpha Key Capital’s chief executive officer. “As asset managers have the same names in their portfolio, they lose their competitive edge,” Keleti said. Similar trends have been playing out across Latin America’s main markets. The number of listed companies in Mexico and Colombia fell about 3% since 2024, while in Chile the decline was 1.6%, according to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. Smaller markets in Argentina and Peru saw growth of at least 3.7% in the span. In Brazil, the decline was steeper — 9%. “The more recent wave of delistings is more of a Brazilian phenomenon, because valuations are more depressed here,” said Bruno Saraiva, co-head of Brazil investment banking and head of equity capital markets for Latin America at Bank of America. Brazilian stocks have traded at lower valuations than most Latin American peers for years. They’re currently at 8.88 times estimated earnings, roughly 26% below the average for the region and about 11% below their 10-year average. The cheap valuations drew foreigners early in 2026 — a flow that quickly reversed when the war in Iran sent oil prices surging and reshuffled bets on global interest rates. Locals continue to withdraw money, with equity funds seeing 8.15 billion reais in outflows this year through August. “There’s an overall frustration and disappointment regarding Brazil,” said Marcelo Millen, head of Latin America equity capital markets at Citigroup. “There was an expectation to reach the end of the year with lower interest rates, but that is not going to materialize.” Prospects for IPOs this year seem more favorable elsewhere in Latin America. Argentina’s YPF Energia Electrica SA and Genneia SA filed for US deals, with dual listings in the local exchange. Colombia’s “ignored” equity market may get a boost from a new government, Millen said, while Chile’s lower rates and controlled inflation make it “the best-positioned” in the region. — With assistance from Vinicius Andrade Published on 09/15/2026 and available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-15/brazil-s-depressed-valuations-drive-wave-of-stock-delistings

Lula Has Not Demonstrated Fiscal Discipline, While Flávio’s Commitment to Spending Cuts Remains Unclear, Says Seneca Co CEO

For Daniel Wainstein, the impact of interest rates on people’s lives is similar to that of inflation in the 1990s. However, voters do not clearly perceive this impact in their daily lives and, as a result, candidates are unlikely to address the issue during the campaign. Seneca Evercore advises companies across different areas, including mergers and acquisitions (M&A), debt restructuring, debt capital markets transactions, such as receivables certificates, and equity offerings. The firm has advised on R$25 billion in M&A transactions over the past five years and R$2 billion in debt transactions over the past twelve months. With business activity growing, the firm has recently acquired a bank. However, across all these areas, Daniel Wainstein, Co CEO of Seneca, says that persistently high interest rates have had a harmful impact on clients. “Brazil cannot withstand another year with interest rates at this level,” he says. “Business owners cannot withstand it.” In his view, President Lula and PL candidate Flávio Bolsonaro are running neck and neck in the 2026 election, and neither is expected to signal a meaningful effort to address the country’s fiscal accounts before the election. Therefore, Wainstein says, the market will closely monitor the first 100 days of the next administration to assess and position itself in relation to fiscal discipline. He says he does not know whether Lula wants to be remembered as the “father of the poor” or as the president who tightened fiscal policy and put the economy back on track. Regarding Flávio, the issue is likely to remain unattractive politically because it is unpopular. However, he may ultimately be more effective on that front. Meanwhile, households and companies will continue to suffer from the effects of high interest rates. According to Wainstein, their negative impact is comparable to that of inflation before the introduction of the Real Plan. “People are employed, but their income levels are very low,” he says. Below are excerpts from the interview: How do you view the electoral landscape? Today, it is 50% versus 50% in terms of the chances of Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro winning the election. Normally, we would say that the incumbent president has an advantage in the race, but the current environment is far from favorable for the incumbent. During the pandemic, with everything that happened and when we did not exactly have exemplary management, the race was already effectively 50 50. Today, with the economy not performing particularly well, companies and consumers under significant pressure and interest rates at high levels, the current government is far from popular. More than ever, either Flávio or Lula will win by a photo finish. What does the market expect? The market expects greater fiscal discipline. The debate around the economic agenda is very limited, but the prevailing view is that we need much greater fiscal rigor because the major burden today, which in the past was inflation, is now interest rates. We do not have high inflation, but these real interest rates, at their current levels, inhibit private sector activity and suffocate companies. Their revenues grow in line with inflation in the prices of goods, while their liabilities, or debt, grow according to interest rates. Most companies are dealing with inflation of 4% to 5%, while at the same time paying 20% to 25% on their liabilities. With each passing year, the situation deteriorates. We can see this in the number of judicial reorganization filings. This has not yet been reflected in unemployment statistics, but in practice, disposable income is steadily declining, precisely because consumers are also paying interest rates at these levels. The electoral scenario we see today appears to reflect some hope that greater fiscal discipline may emerge. Regardless of who wins? It is more difficult to see this under continued PT leadership. This administration has shown no indication of fiscal discipline during Lula’s government, and actions speak louder than words. There is some hope that something different from the current situation could be better. But this is more wishful thinking than anything concrete because Flávio Bolsonaro’s own rhetoric regarding fiscal discipline is still not particularly clear. It is not popular to discuss this issue, but it should be. Today, the greatest burden on the population is real interest rates. For the population, are interest rates today what inflation was in the past? Exactly. And they affect everyone indiscriminately, although those who are more leveraged are the ones who pay the most and are least able to afford it. What we have today, essentially, is a situation in which financial investors, who accounted for approximately 25% of M&A volume in Brazil in 2019, represent less than 6% this year. Why is that? First, the economy is not growing at an encouraging pace. Second, the exit alternative traditionally available to private equity funds, which acquire stakes in private companies, grow them and later sell them at a profit, namely IPOs, has not existed for quite some time. It has been more than five years since we had a genuine IPO window, and the IPOs that were completed performed very poorly. The prospect of a new window opening is becoming increasingly remote. Third, the private equity model, anywhere in the world, relies on leverage, or the use of borrowed funds. With interest rates at current levels, that strategy does not work. These funds have generally performed poorly, have been unable to raise additional capital, and international investors have ultimately left Brazil. Why is this M&A indicator important? To some extent, it reflects investors’ lack of confidence in this business model. It also reflects financial investors’ lack of confidence that the benchmark interest rate will decline and that the economy will return to growth. Companies, suffocated by such high interest rates, are caught in the snowball effect we are seeing today. The positive aspect is that nonfinancial strategic investors remain interested in Brazil. I have seen particularly strong interest from China in Brazilian assets, as well as from investors in the Middle East and Japan. Asia appears to have genuinely discovered Brazil, while Brazil’s relationship with the United States is highly strained. But when companies cannot grow and consumers cannot spend, the economy does not grow. This makes fiscal discipline increasingly critical as the starting point for a virtuous cycle that we do not see emerging in the near term. Would a signal from the candidates be enough to change this trajectory? The market is skeptical. The current government has spent four years doing the opposite. It is difficult for Flávio Bolsonaro to signal something along these lines because it is not politically popular. At the beginning of 2027, the market will pay extremely close attention to the measures adopted by the government during its first 100 days in order to assess the extent to which the administration is genuinely committed to this agenda. Is there an awareness that the fiscal problem is as serious as inflation was before the Real Plan? No. The government understands it and business owners understand it, but although the general population is suffering from high interest rates, the impact is not the same as going to the supermarket and realizing that prices increased overnight. People are employed, but their income levels are very low. Do you see a crisis similar to the one experienced under the Dilma administration on the horizon? Brazil cannot withstand another year with interest rates at this level. Business owners cannot withstand it. Once this starts translating into unemployment, the situation could genuinely become unsustainable. History shows that when people lack the minimum income required to maintain a basic standard of living, disruptive periods can emerge. From the outset, the next government needs to send a strong signal and take action to ensure that conditions become at least minimally sustainable for businesses and, consequently, for the country as a whole. Do you see any possibility of a third alternative emerging? No. In the current environment, unfortunately, no one has been able to establish themselves as a viable third alternative. If Flávio wins, do you see any institutional risk? In the recent past, we faced institutional risk. When Carlos de Almeida Baptista Junior, former Commander of the Brazilian Air Force, provides a detailed account of an attempted coup in the recently released book Eu disse não: uma trincheira antigolpista, there is no reason to dismiss his account. Believing that there was no risk of institutional breakdown is simply ignoring the evidence. January 8 represented a very significant brush with disruption. It is also impossible not to remember what happened on the roads around the time of the election. There is a risk of institutional rupture, but I believe it is low. The market is not even pricing such a risk. It may be considered remote, but assigning it a probability of zero is difficult. If Lula is elected, will he want to leave a positive legacy? What does leaving a positive legacy mean? Being remembered as the “father of the poor”? Or as the government that tightened fiscal policy and managed to put the economy back on track? I do not know exactly how he wants to be remembered. Perhaps he believes he can postpone this ticking time bomb and essentially continue using government spending to fund measures that the population needs. Unfortunately, measures consistent with the budget now need to be adopted. The excessive spending we see today is incompatible with our fiscal situation. How do you view the international environment? It is very difficult for Brazil to maintain its traditional position of neutrality in diplomatic relations given the current geopolitical environment. Nevertheless, Brazil continues to have a large consumer market, remains a major commodities producer and has significant investment potential in infrastructure, agriculture, mining and energy. Brazil continues to be strategically relevant globally and remains attractive to international investors, particularly Chinese investors. However, the global environment resembles a return to the Cold War, accompanied by high asset price volatility. How are you positioning the business? We believe in Brazil so strongly that we are acquiring a bank. Our business is performing surprisingly well because companies facing difficulties need to take action. Whether that means selling part of their businesses or renegotiating or extending their debt maturities, we ultimately work to find a solution. Foreign investors seeking to enter Brazil need an advisor. The credit market is under pressure, but there are areas, such as the Minha Casa, Minha Vida housing program, where we have been very active. There are still geographic pockets in the country with significant pent up housing demand, and the real estate sector is an area that requires substantial financing. Brazil currently has a dynamic in which large banks are losing market share to firms such as Seneca and other independent players, whether in credit, wealth management, credit cards or other financial services segments. Published on 09/10/2026 and available at: https://www.estadao.com.br/economia/entrevista-daniel-wainstein-seneca-lula-flavio-fiscal/?srsltid=AU7gw4UNExTPwboi762JHjPtdc9OgW1uk65JCjsA8AWUqx8A9u_krr0t

Majority of companies that went public since 2016 are worth less than at IPO

Only 16 of the 72 companies still listed have posted gains relative to their IPO price Just 5 have outperformed the Ibovespa over the period; investors should evaluate offerings carefully (Folha de S.Paulo) The current picture of what has happened over the last decade with companies that debuted on the stock market raises some important questions for investors and may be useful in thinking about the next ten years. Of the 92 companies that carried out initial public offerings (IPOs) on the Brazilian Stock Exchange since 2016, 20 have left the market during that period. Among the 72 companies that remain listed, only 16 have posted positive performance relative to their IPO price as of April 24, and just 5 have outperformed the Ibovespa index over the period. Within this group, there are companies of varying characteristics and sectors, retail and technology concentrated nearly 35% of IPOs, whose performances are explained by different reasons. Even so, the figures, drawn from a survey conducted by Seneca Evercore, a financial advisory firm specializing in mergers and acquisitions and capital markets, serve as a useful warning to investors who jump into offerings without carefully evaluating the profile and objectives of the companies seeking to enter the stock market, particularly during periods of euphoria. This is especially relevant in a market that has seen no transactions for more than four years and is beginning to show signs of its first one soon, despite still appearing far from recovering the momentum seen in 2020 and 2021, a period that concentrated more than 80% of the IPOs from companies that entered the exchange in the last ten years and remain listed. Last week, Compass Gás e Energia, a company belonging to the Cosan group, announced its plan to list on the exchange, the only one expected by the market at a moment when fears over inflation and high interest rates are intertwined. The final share price is expected to be announced on May 7. Rodrigo Mello, founding partner of Seneca Evercore, says that having 56 out of a total of 72 companies listed since 2016 whose shares are currently worth less than their IPO price is even more surprising given the strong performance of the exchange in 2026 and the abundance of foreign capital received during the period (more than R$60 billion). "And that doesn't even account for the fact that the investor could have taken that same money and left it in the CDI. Looking at it that way, the loss is even greater," says Mello. Mello notes, however, that an investor who decided to participate in an IPO did not necessarily lose money, since they may have sold their shares along the way. Even so, he emphasizes, it is striking that, out of the universe of 92 companies that debuted on the exchange since 2016 (including those that have since left the market), in only 25% of cases did share performance in the first year after listing come out positive. The remaining 75% show negative median returns in the first year after the IPO, with a 65% decline among the worst-performing 25%. One year, Mello notes, is a relatively short time horizon for equity investments, which means that, in those cases, the loss was most likely borne by the investor who participated in the offering. Pedro Moura, equity analyst at asset manager Reach Capital, says that a failed offering is typically the result of a combination of factors: a reversal in the economic cycle, overestimated growth prospects, or investment plans that do not adequately compensate capital. Among the companies testing the window for market openings, Moura says, there are companies at different stages of maturity, and depending on the business cycle, an IPO may prove ill-timed for that particular moment. "But ex ante it is difficult to make an objective judgment, it is very much case by case," he says. In order to compare the performance of the 72 companies that have gone public since 2016 and remain listed, the advisory firm also carried out the exercise of calculating the annualized growth rate of each company's shares, dividing them into four groups of 18 companies each. While Group 1, which contains the stocks with the best annual returns since their respective IPOs through April 24, shows an average annual gain of 7.7%, Group 4, with the worst cumulative performances, records an average annual return of negative 43%. According to Mello, although the survey covers a ten-year period, in practice, 61 of the listed companies went public five or six years ago. Since then, there has been a large and rapid surge in interest rates, making fixed-income investments nearly unbeatable. The benchmark interest rate entered 2021 at 2% per year, its historic low, reaching 15% in mid-2025, a record in nearly 20 years. Additionally, he says, high interest rates and lower economic growth, among other factors, caused significant debt burdens among companies that borrowed when rates were lower. "All companies with debt suffer, but the ones listed on the exchange are the ones we can see," says Mello. Faced with the challenge of making a sound investment, Mello says investors need to be more selective and, given everything they have been through in recent years, set a higher bar, participating only in offerings from companies that truly have a compelling story and are genuinely ready to access the market. For Moura, of Reach, investors should analyze the premises and motivations behind a company's decision to go public and assess whether the project and the company's valuation make sense given their individual risk appetite. "And, especially, avoid getting in during moments of widespread euphoria." Published on 05/05/2026 and available at: https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2026/05/maioria-das-empresas-que-abriram-capital-desde-2016-vale-menos-que-no-ipo.shtml

Amid global turmoil, Brazil stands out on the radar of international investors

(O Globo) War in the Middle East draws attention to opportunities in the country, mainly in commodities and energy, despite the obstacles. Addressing internal bottlenecks could stimulate investment, experts say. The recent global geopolitical landscape — from Donald Trump's tariff wave to the war in the Middle East — has opened a window of opportunity for Brazil to attract foreign investment. And outside interest is already going beyond the successive records of the São Paulo Stock Exchange, B3, since the beginning of the year. As the dollar loses strength worldwide and investors seek business in emerging economies, long-term project prospects here are heating up, analysts and consultants point out. Far from conflict zones and with a coveted stock of natural resources — from oil and renewable energy sources to fertile land and critical minerals — Brazil has been viewed more favorably, despite the proximity of yet another heated presidential election and persistent obstacles such as fiscal fragility and high interest rates. The comparison with other emerging countries helps, but experts believe the movement is still well below Brazil's true economic potential. If legal and regulatory uncertainties were removed, they could help attract even more long-term capital. On the other hand, the country's risks make business here cheaper for those coming from abroad to invest. Beyond the strong flow into the Stock Exchange, Brazilian banks and consultancies have been increasingly sought out, mainly by European and Asian groups interested in stakes in companies or entire businesses. It is still a diffuse movement, without consolidated figures, but one that is already appearing in reports and comments from financiers. "We are seeing a better level of transactions than last year, with greater interest in Brazilian assets, including smaller companies, especially in the areas of technology, financial services, renewable energy, food, and also industrial," says Isaias Sznifer, founding partner of Seneca Evercore. "This is shaping up to be a good year for transactions." Even so, he believes it is too early to confirm that there will be growth in foreign investment in long-term projects. On the domestic side, Brazilian businesspeople are trying to accelerate talks to close deals before the elections. "And since we have gone a long time without an IPO (initial public offering on the Stock Exchange), we are also seeing funds recycling their portfolios, monetizing assets, selling a business to return value to investors and open new investment fronts," he says. "Transaction multiples in Brazil carry a discount compared to those in developed markets precisely because of the risks involved. That hasn't changed." Infrastructure concessions are seen as a focal point for capturing this interest. Despite lower returns, they are more stable, long-term performing assets, experts explain. The recent revision of contracts in the airport sector, for example, resulted in greater interest from foreign groups in Galeão, in Rio. At the end of last month, the Spanish company Aena won the terminal for R$2.9 billion, 210% above the minimum auction value. In a sign of greater appetite for Brazil, Mubadala Capital, the private investment arm of Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund in the United Arab Emirates, has just formalized its third strategic fund focused on the country. The Brazil Special Opportunities Fund III totals more than US$900 million in commitments from investors interested in the country, above the initial target of US$750 million. The plan is to acquire controlling stakes in businesses in "complex situations." Among acquisitions already completed here are the Starbucks and Subway food chains, through Zamp, the owner of Burger King. Businesses for sale The domestic context of prolonged high interest rates brings Brazilian businesspeople closer to outside offers. With cash flow pressured by rising capital costs, the country broke records for judicial recovery filings. Companies are carrying out financial restructurings and putting assets up for sale to avoid that outcome. In parallel, large corporations are attracting investment to the Stock Exchange. Alberto Ramos, chief economist for Latin America at Goldman Sachs, says that under today's global conditions, assets in Brazil generally become even more attractive to outside investors who have not found more favorable prospects in other countries: "The opportunity has increased. This has little to do with the shine and light of Brazil's macroeconomic story, but with the darkness that surrounds us. Whatever it may be, the advantage is there. It's just that, at this moment, this positive sentiment is very circumstantial." Current circumstances end up highlighting the fact that Brazil is far from conflict zones. While the war in Ukraine drags on and the Middle East proves to be a powder keg, Latin America's largest economy does not carry that type of risk. As a major commodities exporter — mainly of oil, minerals, and food — Brazil is experiencing a "positive shock" in trade exchanges, improving the performance of its trade balance. It also has a large consumer market, abundant energy, and a more sophisticated financial sector than most emerging markets, starting with its South American neighbors, Ramos highlights. Roberto Dumas, chief strategist at GCB Investimentos and economics professor at Insper, also highlights the basics: Brazil is a democracy with stable institutions — despite recent challenges — has advanced in some reforms, has inflation at an acceptable level, and interest rates on a downward trajectory, the opposite trend from several other countries. But it carries its own risks, he notes: "It's not that we became a showcase or the cover of The Economist with Christ taking off again. It's that the world is in a very bad state. Brazil still has a massive amount of homework to do." He is referring to the British magazine's 2009 cover, which featured the Christ the Redeemer statue taking off like a rocket, alluding to Brazil's rising economic indicators. In the following years, however, the tide turned. The country lost its investment grade as risks rose in the wake of a recession. The ups and downs, combined with persistent legal and regulatory insecurities, have taken a toll on the country's assets. Oil gains In 2025, the Brazilian economy grew 2.3%. Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its forecast for the country in 2026 upward from 1.6% to 1.9%, highlighting Brazil's gains from oil exports. In the opposite direction, the IMF warned that gross public debt is expected to end the year at 96.5% of GDP, hitting the 100% threshold as early as 2027. In parallel, economists are increasingly estimating that inflation may close 2026 above the target. The tailwind blowing from abroad in Brazil's favor is now a consensus among experts, but they also agree that resolving long-standing bottlenecks could unlock far more investment and accelerate the country's growth. In financial markets, the comment is that Brazil's internal challenges end up creating a kind of "discount" on investments directed at the productive sector. And even where Brazil promises to be a powerhouse, such as in rare earths, the challenge follows the same tune. An executive who monitors transactions in the sector and is advising an international fund interested in investing in this area says that out of 30 projects evaluated, only two will be brought to foreign investors. The rest were discarded due to regulatory, environmental, and logistical risks. "The United States has great interest in rare earths — it is very promising, with demand across multiple sectors. But it's not just about extraction; it's about negotiating processing. China's differentiator is its processing capacity. This opens up the possibility of exporting a good with higher added value," reflects Marcio Sette Fortes, former executive at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and professor at Ibmec. For Welber Barral, former Foreign Trade Secretary and partner at consultancy BMJ, regulation is central to this front, or distrust ends up devaluing the projects. He points out that Brazil holds the equivalent of twice the country's GDP in critical mineral reserves, but has yet to define a clear regulatory framework and strategy. "It's not that Brazil is cheap. The country has enormous potential, but it is not better utilized due to institutional and legal fragility," says the consultant. "Weak regulation breeds distrust. And all of that ends up being priced in." Uncertainty creates obstacles Dumas of GCB notes that the risks, in general, are known and priced in by investors, but the climate of uncertainty blocks investment. He acknowledges recent advances such as the Tax Reform and regulatory frameworks in sectors like sanitation, but highlights as concerning, for example, the infiltration of organized crime into the financial system, as recent scandals have shown. "The winds tend to favor Brazil a little. The magnitude of that will depend somewhat on the competence shown in addressing policies that improve this opportunity," emphasizes Ramos of Goldman Sachs. "Despite receiving more in the short term, Brazil still receives far less investment than its potential, partly due to a lack of regulatory frameworks. And there is the fiscal issue, which has worsened in recent years. Were it not for that, Brazil would clearly be flying." The current level of the benchmark interest rate — 14.75% per year — is identified as the number one obstacle in the Brazilian economy, because it influences all sectors and company costs. But there are specific bottlenecks even in segments that are attractive to foreigners and national flagship sectors, such as agribusiness's dependence on imported fertilizers, whose supply declined with the war in Iran, Fortes highlights: "We have a giant with its Achilles' heel completely exposed. It is necessary to expand access to raw materials for fertilizer production in the country." Published on 04/19/2026 and available at: https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/negocios/noticia/2026/04/19/em-meio-a-abalo-global-brasil-se-destaca-no-radar-de-investidores-internacionais.ghtml

M&A Records Strongest Quarter Since 2021 and Attracts Foreign Investors

(Valor Econômico) The combination of Odontoprev and Bradesco Saúde, as well as the sale of Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA) to Chinalco and Rio Tinto, were the two largest deals. The Brazilian mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market closed the first quarter of 2026 on a recovery path, driven by large transactions and a rush by companies to close deals ahead of the election period. A survey conducted by Seneca Evercore shows that, between January and March, transactions totaled US$15.9 billion (approximately R$82 billion at the current exchange rate), up 30% year-over-year—the best result for the period since 2021. However, this growth was concentrated in fewer transactions: 153 deals in the quarter, compared to 198 a year earlier, indicating that the market has been driven by larger-ticket deals. Two transactions accounted for a significant share of the total volume: the combination of Odontoprev and Bradesco Saúde, estimated at US$5.8 billion, and the US$1.9 billion sale of Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA), previously owned by the Votorantim group, to China’s Chinalco and Anglo-Australian Rio Tinto. According to Daniel Wainstein, partner at Seneca Evercore, this trend reflects a rebound in M&A activity following two weaker years. “Many transactions that had been put on hold last year resumed at the start of this year.” He adds that companies and investors are seeking to take advantage of a more predictable environment in the first half of the year to complete transactions before a potentially more unstable scenario in the second half, due to the presidential elections. In 2025, total M&A activity reached US$58.4 billion. Political uncertainty remains a key constraint for dealmaking. “What the market needs is less uncertainty. As polls begin to define a clearer scenario, it becomes easier to price assets, as volatility declines,” he says. The expectation is that, with greater clarity around the elections, negotiations will move forward more smoothly. At the same time, there are signs of improving foreign appetite. International investors—especially from the United States—have renewed their focus on Brazil. “With China currently outside the U.S. strategic map and India already saturated with investments, Brazil becomes the main ‘third way’ among large-scale emerging markets,” he notes. This interest has been concentrated in sectors such as financial services, renewable energy, and technology. In financial services, a structural shift is underway, with the rise of independent platforms in areas such as wealth management, insurance, and credit. “There is a true revolution in the sector,” he says, noting that this creates opportunities both for new investments and for consolidation among smaller players. The credit environment has also supported this trend. Brazilian companies have been extending their debt profiles, replacing short-term bank loans with longer-term capital markets funding. According to Wainstein, this shift reduces pressure on cash flow from investment plans, thereby creating value for shareholders. With more investors active in the market, companies with stronger capital structures have been taking advantage of opportunities to consolidate fragmented sectors. “The ability to finance through long-term instruments changes the game significantly,” he adds. By sector, technology led transaction volume in the quarter with 18%, followed by consumer and retail at 15%, and financial institutions at 14%. In addition to the major deals in healthcare and mining, the report highlights transactions in telecommunications, involving IHS Towers and Desktop, and in energy, including Wilson Sons and Petrobras assets. The outlook is for momentum to continue into the second quarter. “The trend is for continued recovery compared to 2024 and 2025,” says Wainstein. Expectations of lower long-term interest rates remain a key driver, particularly for companies that rely more on growth than on heavy capital expenditures, such as those in technology and education. Published on 04/08/2026 and available at: https://valor.globo.com/empresas/noticia/2026/04/08/m-as-tem-o-melhor-trimestre-desde-2021-e-atraem-estrangeiros.ghtml

Struggling companies: high interest rates drive up debt and squeeze cash flow

(O Globo) A record number of companies has resorted to out-of-court restructuring. The combined debt of large companies has reached R$ 1.7 trillion, according to a survey. This month, Raízen, a biofuels giant, initiated an out-of-court restructuring (REJ), seeking a solution for R$ 65 billion in debt. It is the largest case ever recorded in Brazil. The day before, Grupo Pão de Açúcar (GPA) had taken the same path. A record number of companies in the country is turning to this mechanism to renegotiate debt with financial creditors. Setting aside management or operational issues, they share in common strained finances, driven by the combination of an adverse economic environment and persistently high interest rates, which have caused borrowing costs to surge and compressed cash flow. The 0.25 percentage point cut to the Selic, the benchmark interest rate, announced last Wednesday by the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, brought the rate to 14.75% per year; even so, it remains at its highest level since August 2006. The reference rate rose from 2% in August 2020 to 15% in June last year. It was during the period of ultra-low interest rates, at 2%, that the storm began to form. Companies made capital allocation decisions — investments and acquisitions — “leaning heavily” on leverage, says Daniel Wainstein, CEO of Seneca Evercore. As the Selic rate surged, debt began to eat into cash flow: “If a company is not generating real growth, revenues are increasing at around 5% per year, while debt is growing at 20% or close to that. At some point, the math catches up. And this compounds over time, growth upon growth. Naturally, this has led to a liquidity crisis for many companies in Brazil. It is a very delicate mismatch.” In 2025, 80 companies resorted to out-of-court restructuring (REJ), a record in the historical series of the Brazilian Observatory of Out-of-Court Restructuring (Obre). So far this year, there have already been seven cases. “Out-of-court restructuring has become the natural alternative for companies that still maintain the ability to negotiate with their main creditors, have some level of cash flow, but need time to structure this process efficiently,” says Brenno Mussolin Nogueira, from Rayes e Fagundes Advogados. To restore their financial health, companies are acting on multiple fronts, explains Daniella Fragoso, from BMA Advogados: “In scenarios like this, to raise funds, companies must, in addition to renegotiating debt, resort to asset sales, receive capital injections from controlling shareholders, or convert debt into equity.” Rising debt The debt of 129 companies in the country increased from R$ 1.12 trillion in 2020 to R$ 1.71 trillion last year, a 53% increase, according to a survey by financial data consultant Einar Rivero, CEO of Elos Ayta Consultoria, commissioned by O Globo. Excluding Petrobras from this group, indebtedness rose by 83%, from R$ 727 billion to R$ 1.33 trillion. It was during this period that interest rates rose from 2% to 15% per year, “highlighting a significantly more restrictive financial environment for raising capital,” he says: “Even with elevated interest rates, companies continued to increase their debt. Part of this is associated with the need for investments and the refinancing of liabilities, but it also reflects the diversification of funding sources, especially abroad,” says Rivero, noting that indebtedness is also influenced by global credit conditions and the U.S. dollar. Another factor weighing on cash flow is the increase in the tax burden, which rose from 31.2% of GDP in 2022 to 32.3%. “Projections for 2026 point to continued growth, already illustrated by the record tax collection in January, of R$ 325.8 billion. It is estimated that, by the end of this year, the tax burden could exceed 34% of GDP. It has never been this high and adds to other ‘bottlenecks’ in day-to-day business operations, such as the rise of the dollar and interest rates,” says Maristela Ferreira de Souza Miglioli, from Ciari Moreira Advogados. Systemic shock The interest rate shock in Brazil is systemic and affects companies across all sectors — from healthcare, such as Oncoclínicas, to steel, such as CSN (see more below) — but the degree of impact on each company depends on its capital structure and operational efficiency, says Rodrigo Gallegos, partner at consulting firm RGF and a restructuring specialist. He notes that a Selic rate at 15% translates into 18% to 30% for borrowers, depending on bank spreads. The cases of Raízen and Grupo Pão de Açúcar, he says, expose inefficiencies that had been masked by cheap capital when the Selic was at 2%: “In retail, the impact is twofold. The sector already operates with compressed margins. When the Selic rises, the cost of financing working capital and inventories surges, while consumers lose purchasing power.” In agribusiness, companies leveraged up to expand while conditions allowed it. With the reversal in interest rates, combined with adverse weather conditions, crop failures, and commodity price volatility, cash generation did not keep pace with debt servicing. Last year, there were 1,990 judicial recovery filings in agribusiness alone, a 56.4% increase compared to 2024, according to Serasa Experian. This is the highest level recorded since 2021, when the series began. For Fábio Astrauskas, from Siegen, a financial restructuring consultancy, the financial challenge requires discipline and strategic vision: “The combined debt of GPA and Raízen is greater than the amount reported by the Pentagon (U.S.) in the war against Iran in its first six days (US$ 11.3 billion, or approximately R$ 60 billion).” Capital markets According to Wainstein, the current environment reflects the volatility to which the Brazilian market is exposed, and mid-sized companies tend to be more affected: “The interest coverage ratio, which measures a company’s ability to service its debt (the lower the number, the worse), for mid-sized publicly listed companies reached 1.36x, comparable to 2017 levels. For larger companies, which make up the Ibovespa, it stands at 2.56x, the lowest level since 2020.” As financial conditions tightened, companies began renegotiating their debts. This movement has been supported by the expansion of funding in the capital markets. Data from FGV Ibre show that bank loans are losing share to private debt instruments, which already account for one-third of total corporate credit. Guilherme Maranhão, from the Brazilian Financial and Capital Markets Association (Anbima), notes that capital markets have helped cushion the impact of high interest rates on companies’ debt servicing capacity and credit quality: “There have been issuances of debentures (debt securities). The trading of receivables has also increased, with higher volumes of FIDC issuances and securitized debentures (such as CRIs and CRAs).” Published on 03/22/2026 and available at: https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/noticia/2026/03/22/empresas-asfixiadas-com-juro-alto-divida-dispara-e-pressiona-o-caixa.ghtml

Oil, Energy, Mining: The Largest M&A Transactions in Brazil in 2025

(Estadão) The M&A market moved more than US$ 58 billion last year, representing a 26.5% increase compared to 2024 Driven by large-scale transactions in the energy and natural resources sector, Brazil’s mergers and acquisitions market moved more than US$ 58 billion in 2025. According to a survey by Seneca Evercore, based on MergerMarket data, the volume represents a 26.5% increase compared to 2024 (US$ 45 billion), despite a 3% decline in the total number of transactions. “The total value is higher because the largest transactions took place in infrastructure-related sectors, where capital costs and required investments are higher,” says Cleveland Prates, professor of economics at FGV-Law and of regulation at the Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (Fipe). Evolution of the mergers and acquisitions market in Brazil. In total, 843 M&A transactions took place in the country in 2025. The energy and natural resources sector (such as oil, mining, and pulp and paper) accounted for more than 50% of the total value transacted (over US$ 30 billion). In 2020, these transactions represented less than 10% of total volume. Since 2021, however, the segment has been gaining ground, with transaction volume reaching the highest level in the past 15 years. “One of the factors explaining this movement is the more resilient nature of the sector, which is less exposed to domestic market fluctuations and to the country’s political and economic uncertainties,” says Daniel Wainstein, co-founder of Seneca Evercore. “High interest rates have had a significant impact on company valuations.” The largest transactions of the year Sector concentration is reflected in the largest deals of the year. Seven of the ten largest transactions carried out in Brazil in 2025 were in the energy and natural resources segment, including the largest deal of the year, the Peregrino Offshore Field. In May, Brazilian oil company Prio acquired 60% of the operations of the offshore oil field located in the Campos Basin, off the coast of the state of Rio de Janeiro. The transaction, estimated at US$ 3.3 billion (approximately R$ 17.8 billion), was signed with Norwegian company Equinor. Prio’s reference shareholder is businessman Nelson Tanure, and the company is valued at just over R$ 37 billion. “Equinor is divesting from assets they have already extensively explored in order to invest in other fields in Brazil. This is normal in this market,” says Prates. The acquisition of the Peregrino field, however, was not the only major transaction of the year. The second position in the ranking is occupied by the deal involving Serena Energia, which underwent a public tender offer (OPA) and a reorganization of its shareholder structure. With the divestment of part of Tarpon’s stake and the offer led by a fund vehicle linked to Actis (together with GIC), the transaction amounted to approximately US$ 2.8 billion and resulted in the company’s delisting. The third-largest deal was J&F’s acquisition of Eldorado Brasil, after nearly a decade of dispute with Paper Excellence, for US$ 2.7 billion. Also noteworthy are the merger between Marfrig and BRF, which created one of the world’s largest food companies in a transaction exceeding US$ 2.25 billion, and Iberdrola’s acquisition of Previ’s 30% stake in Neoenergia, in a US$ 2.2 billion deal that increased the company’s ownership in the electric utility to over 80%. Momentum in 2026 and new promising areas With expectations of lower interest rates, experts view the M&A market with optimism and project a more active 2026. The scenario, however, still carries risks, such as fiscal uncertainties and the impact of the electoral period on investors. “The expectation of a Selic rate cut has once again fueled appetite for M&A,” comments Wainstein of Seneca Evercore. “However, populist rhetoric and high government spending could restrain this scenario.” The executive also points to improvements in diplomatic relations between Brazil and the United States as a catalyst for the market. “The U.S. has always been the country’s largest investor and source of capital, but initiatives had stalled. Over the past six months, improved relations have made them look at Brazil with less bias,” he says. Wainstein’s outlook is that, with lower interest rates and increased international capital inflows, new sectors will gain prominence. “We should see a more intense year, with more transactions in technology, financial services, fintechs, and asset managers,” he notes. On the other hand, Cleveland Prates believes that the transactions expected to take place in 2026 go beyond dynamics specific to the year itself. “You rarely prospect, decide, and acquire within the same year. What will happen in 2026 was already planned in 2025,” he says. “The opportunities and challenges arising from the Brazilian economy this year should begin to consolidate from 2027 or 2028.” Published on 01/15/2026 and available at: https://www.estadao.com.br/economia/negocios/maiores-operacoes-fusao-aquisicao-brasil-2025/

Brazil to See a Rush to Close M&A Deals Ahead of the Election, Says Seneca Evercore Partner

(O Globo) The coming months are expected to be busy in the universe of mergers and acquisitions M&A in Brazil, according to market players, with a race against time to complete transactions before the electoral campaign gains momentum, says Rodrigo Mello, cofounder of independent financial advisory firm Seneca Evercore. The year 2026 is expected to be challenging, but Brazil will experience a strong push to close M&A transactions and capital markets deals, particularly in the first half of the year. The reason, of course, is the electoral calendar, which tends to affect the timing of transactions, according to Mello, whose firm advises companies during deal processes. M&A volume in Brazil jumped 27% in 2025, according to data from Mergermarket compiled by Seneca Evercore, reaching US$ 58 billion last year. Despite the increase in deal value, the number of transactions fell 3% year over year. “2025 was not a good year for the segment in terms of the number of transactions, which hit the lowest level in six years. Even so, the volume in reais was very relevant, because some deals involved very large checks, which pushed the figures higher.” Mega-deals One example was the acquisition of a 30.3% stake in Neoenergia, which operates in power generation, transmission, and distribution, by Spain’s Iberdrola. Previ, Banco do Brasil’s pension fund, sold the stake for R$ 9.7 billion. Neoenergia has also announced a public tender offer to acquire the remaining minority shares for R$ 6.5 billion. Daniel Wainstein, also a cofounder of Seneca Evercore, believes that the M&A environment could heat up again “with the Selic interest rate expected to begin falling soon, which could push asset prices higher and lead shareholders to reconsider selling minority stakes.” In addition, “a lower cost of financing may help buyers seeking funding for their acquisitions.” Wainstein, Mello, and the firm’s other cofounder, Isaias Szlifer, previously worked at Goldman Sachs and cofounded Seneca Evercore in 2015. In 2020, they acquired a minority stake in the firm from Banco BTG Pactual. In 2023, they sold 20% of the business to the American investment bank Evercore. Since then, the firm has operated under the name Seneca Evercore. Published on 01/12/2025 and available at: https://oglobo.globo.com/blogs/capital/post/2026/01/brasil-tera-corrida-para-fechar-fusoes-antes-da-eleicao-diz-socio-da-seneca-evercore.ghtml

Large transactions set the tone for acquisitions in 2025

(Valor Econômico) According to banking executives, the trend is for the infrastructure sector, including energy, to remain heated for transactions Large-scale transactions sustained the volumes of Brazil’s mergers and acquisitions industry in 2025, a year in which high interest rates made the financing of such deals more expensive. Data from consultancy Dealogic show that the announced volume throughout the year, considering figures through mid-December, totaled R$234 billion, broadly in line with the R$231 billion recorded in 2024. The perception is that in 2026 there will be some increase in volumes, although the electoral calendar has the potential to affect part of the deal flow, especially if there is exchange-rate volatility, something historically typical of the period and a context that can deter foreign investors. The industry reached a peak in 2021, during the pandemic, when it moved R$482 billion. The head of UBS BB’s investment banking division, Anderson Brito, believes that M&A volume in the country will expand by around 10% in 2026, to roughly US$55 billion, with the share of transactions involving foreign parties, known as cross-border deals, rising from 30% in 2025 to 35%. “There is a lot of interest from European and Asian investors in Brazil” Among the main transactions of 2025 was J&F’s purchase of the stake in Eldorado previously held by Paper Excellence, bringing an end to a long-standing shareholder dispute. A transaction involving two listed companies was the merger between Marfrig and BRF, which created the giant MBRF. Another large deal involved the acquisition by Iberdrola of the stake held by Previ, the pension fund of Banco do Brasil, in Neoenergia. One of the most significant transactions involved Prio, which completed the purchase of 40% of the Peregrino Field (and Pitangola) operation from Equinor. There was also, later in the year, the sale of Motiva’s airports. The technology sector also stood out with heavyweight transactions, such as the sale of Conta Azul to Visma. “We had a year in 2025 with greater sector diversification,” says Diogo Aragão The global head of investment banking at Itaú BBA, Roderick Greenlees, recalls that M&A volumes in the year were also boosted by tender offers that resulted in companies going private, such as Serena’s. The executive points out that the energy sector “will continue to be a relevant contributor to M&A volumes in 2026”. A survey by M&A boutique Seneca Evercore shows that throughout 2025 the energy and natural resources sector accounted for 52% of total transaction volume, compared with 10% in 2020. According to Seneca’s founding partner, Daniel Wainstein, this represents the highest volume for the segment in 15 years. “We believe that 2026 could be a better year for M&A, with the Selic reaching lower levels, which could boost asset prices,” he says. With higher prices, shareholders may once again consider selling stakes in their companies. Despite the greater number of transactions in these sectors, which weigh heavily on totals because they are multibillion-real deals, more segments contributed over the course of 2025. “We had a year with more sector diversification,” comments Diogo Aragão, head of M&A at Bank of America in Brazil. He notes that in Brazil the infrastructure sector remains traditionally the most active, given the maturity of the industry. According to the executive, many transactions are being launched and presented to potential buyers with the intention of closing deals at the beginning of 2026. “From April onward, deal flow becomes conditioned by the elections,” he says. The issue, according to him, is that elections historically bring effects on the exchange rate, which is critical for foreign investors’ decision-making. André Moor, head of investment banking at Bradesco BBI, says the bank entered 2026 with a very robust pipeline and that many transactions “are impermeable to the elections.” The highlights, he stresses, continue to be infrastructure and energy. The head of M&A at Santander Brasil, Thiago Rocha, believes that this year the election theme will indeed be relevant, but that large transactions continue independently. “2026 may once again be a year supported by large transactions, with a larger average deal size,” he said. For the head of M&A at Goldman Sachs in Brazil, Pedro Muzzi, M&A volumes this year should be better than in 2025. The executive notes that at the financial institution the pipeline of operations has been growing since September. One market participant expected to once again drive M&A volumes, according to him, is private equity funds, which, without an IPO window for their exits, are likely to opt for selling their stakes. “They need to divest in order to be able to raise new funds,” he says. Due to volatility, many transactions had to adopt different structures. The head of M&A at BTG Pactual, Alessandro Farkuh, says the year was also marked by more structured transactions, precisely because of the still-uncertain environment. “In moments like this there is a huge reassessment of the most intelligent way to allocate capital,” says Farkuh. “There are many transactions involving capital markets and publicly listed companies,” he adds. Antonio Coutinho, who leads Citi’s investment banking operations in Brazil, says the environment for mergers and acquisitions became more positive throughout 2025. “The pipeline is still dominated by large infrastructure transactions,” says Coutinho. He points out, on the other hand, that transactions in the energy sector, which stand out every year, lost momentum in 2025, with less participation from renewable energy companies, which are facing challenges due to curtailment, the forced reduction of power generation. Diego Mendes, co-head of M&A at XP, also expects a more positive year for deals and notes that improved performance of listed shares helps bring buyers’ and sellers’ perceptions of asset values closer together. Published on 05/01/2025 and available at: https://valor.globo.com/financas/noticia/2026/01/05/grandes-operacoes-deram-o-tom-das-aquisicoes-em-2025.ghtml

Energy Leads M&A Activity in 2025, with Interest Rates Set to Shape Deals in 2026

(InfoMoney) Between January and November 2025, the total value of mergers and acquisitions transactions in Brazil increased by 18% compared to the same period of the previous year — that is, the aggregate deal value. The number of transactions, however, fell by 25%. The data were compiled by M&A boutique Seneca Evercore at the request of InfoMoney. “The increase in total deal value is due to a small number of large-scale transactions, concentrated mainly in the energy and natural resources sectors, which include, for example, power generation and distribution companies, oil and gas, pulp and paper, and mining,” explains Rodrigo Mello, founding partner at Seneca Evercore. The acquisition of an equity stake in Equinor’s offshore Peregrino field by PRIO for US$3.35 billion was the largest transaction of the year, followed by the acquisition of Serena Energia by Actis, in a divestment by Tarpon, for US$2.82 billion. Also within the energy and natural resources sector, the third-largest deal was J&F’s acquisition of Eldorado Brasil, after eight years of dispute with Paper Excellence. Since 2021, the energy sector has gained increasing relevance in the M&A market, rising from a 10% share of total deal value in 2020 to 54% in 2025. From January to November this year, the total value of transactions in energy and natural resources reached US$28.2 billion, representing a 47% increase compared to the same period last year. “One of the factors explaining this trend is the more resilient nature of these sectors, which are less exposed to domestic market fluctuations and to the country’s political and economic uncertainties,” Mello notes. This scenario is not expected to change significantly in 2026. According to Guilherme Steagall, managing partner at 44 Capital, one of the key M&A trends for next year will be consolidation in sectors that are currently highly regionalized — such as certain power generation businesses. “There are ongoing efforts to consolidate these capabilities. Many solar energy projects, for example, are highly regionalized and locally based. We have seen many funds and other players raising capital specifically to acquire large-scale capacity, particularly when long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) are in place,” Steagall says. According to the executive, a higher number of transactions in 2026 should also be concentrated in sectors such as logistics, technology, education, and infrastructure. According to Seneca Evercore’s study, after energy and natural resources, consumer and retail accounted for 14% of deal value, followed by industrials at 9%, transportation and logistics at 8%, and technology at 7%. Deals in 2026 After another year in which energy and natural resources stood out in Brazil’s M&A landscape, attention is turning to monetary policy. According to analysts interviewed by InfoMoney, interest rate dynamics are expected to affect asset pricing and encourage equity divestments, while a still-elevated Selic rate could make M&A an attractive financing alternative. Expectations of cuts to the benchmark interest rate, currently at 15% per year, are a central element in market projections for M&A activity in 2026. “It could be a better year, with the Selic potentially reaching lower levels, which could boost asset prices and encourage shareholders to once again consider selling stakes,” says Mello of Seneca Evercore. Similarly, he notes that lower financing costs could support buyers seeking funding for acquisitions. Market participants currently expect the Central Bank to begin an interest rate cutting cycle as early as the beginning of next year. In the most recent Focus Bulletin, market agents reduced their Selic projection from 12.25% to 12.13%. The report, published on December 15, compiles market expectations for the economy. Steagall cautions that persistently high interest rates may lead companies to view mergers and acquisitions as an alternative to traditional financing. “It is very difficult to remain independent with interest rates at a 15% level — it is hard to generate returns. The M&A market will be a solution: efficiency gains through consolidation of activities, especially along logistics and production chains. That is the path,” he says. The 44 Capital executive projects a different deal profile for the next cycle. In his view, 2026 should see more transactions with somewhat smaller deal sizes than in 2025. “Mid-sized companies will play an important role. Of course, there will be new mergers, but this rationale applies especially to mid-sized businesses,” he says. Through November, Brazil recorded 592 transactions in 2025, with total deal value exceeding US$52 billion. Published on 12/17/2025 and available at: https://www.infomoney.com.br/business/energia-puxa-mas-em-2025-e-juros-devem-ser-determinantes-para-2026/

Foreign investment in Brazil rises again, but should only translate into M&A activity in 2026

(Valor Econômico) Among the ten largest M&A transactions in 2025, foreign buyers were involved in only two, a share far below that of 2023, when they accounted for half of the top deals. After consecutive declines since February, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows into Brazil rose again in September, according to Central Bank data compiled by Seneca Evercore and obtained exclusively by Valor. Net inflows totaled US$10.7 billion for the month — the highest volume for the period in the past five years and the strongest result since March 2023, when US$10.8 billion were recorded. “The investor, especially the American, is more confident in the bilateral relationship between Brazil and the U.S., supported by expectations of a gradual decline in the Selic [the benchmark interest rate] and a more stable Brazilian real,” says Daniel Wainstein, founding partner of Seneca Evercore. Despite the recovery, these inflows should translate into new mergers and acquisitions (M&A) only throughout the first half of 2026, Wainstein says. That is because such processes tend to be complex and require months to complete. The firm’s monthly report reinforces this view. In October, the number of M&A transactions fell to its lowest level in five years, totaling 33 deals — fewer even than at the beginning of 2020, at the height of the pandemic. Overall, 2025 has not been a favorable year for M&A. From January to October, Brazil recorded 530 mergers and acquisitions, the lowest level for the period since 2020. In value terms, the transactions amounted to just over US$44 billion, ahead only of 2023, according to Seneca. Foreign investor participation has also been muted. Among the ten largest transactions in 2025, they appeared as buyers in only two — a share far lower than in 2023, when they accounted for half of the major deals. “The last quarter should not show much change, but we are confident about a more pronounced improvement throughout the first half of 2026,” Wainstein says. Even amid softer overall performance, some sectors remain resilient. Energy and natural resources, for instance, continue at record levels and accounted for eight of the ten largest transactions of the year, totaling US$20.2 billion in value. Published on 11/25/2025 and available at: https://valor.globo.com/empresas/noticia/2025/11/25/investimento-estrangeiro-no-pais-volta-a-subir-mas-so-deve-virar-operacoes-de-fusoes-e-aquisicoes-em-2026.ghtml